The Citadele Bank has told the LETA News Agency about a new survey that has been conducted – one which found that 56% of respondents in Latvia expect the cost of heat to increase during this heating season. The numbers in Estonia and Lithuania respectively were 71% and 59%.
Most respondents predicted that the bills will increase by more than 10% (22% in Latvia, 23% in Lithuania, 33% in Estonia). This response was given more often by people over the age of 40 and by those who live in one of the Baltic capital cities.
22% of people in Latvia, 24% in Lithuania and 27% in Estonia expect heating costs to increase by 5-10%, and around one tenth of respondents in the Baltic States believe that the increase in their bills will be less than 5%.
Some people think that heating costs will decline this season – 10% in Latvia, 7% in Lithuania and 2% in Estonia. 17%, 15% and 14% respectively believe that prices will not change.
It is also true that 17% of people in Latvia, 13% in Estonia and 20% in Lithuania reported that they had not yet started to think about the new heating season.
Kārlis Purgailis is chief economist at the Citadele Bank, and he says that local heat in Latvia mostly comes from natural gas or biomass, so fuel costs make up the bulk of the overall cost. The price of natural gas affects 60-80% of the total tariff, while biomass does that for 40-45% of the price. The price of both fuels has declined during the past year. It is also true that the average price of electricity has been on the decline for the past several months.
Purgailis says that future heating costs will largely depend on changes in fuel prices, as influenced by the global economy and by geopolitical events. Increased tensions in the conflict in the Middle East, for instance, could lead to higher oil prices, which would also mean an increase in the cost of natural gas. In this sense, people’s concern about higher heating costs can be seen as justified, said the expert.
On the other hand, European gas storage facilities are now all but full while gas consumption remains stable and 15-20% lower than before the war, Purgailis adds. There is no reason, therefore, to expect a serious increase in heating costs this season.
The survey on heating costs was conducted for the Citadele Bank by the Norstat research agency in October 2024. 3,000 Baltic respondents aged 18-74 were surveyed online.
Source: BNS
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