There were significant changes in the ratings of political parties last week. The Social Democratic Party (SDE), which had regularly been in third place among parties, this week allowed the Centre Party and the Estonian Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) to move ahead of it.
The latest survey was commissioned by the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues and carried out by pollster Norstat Eesti. The opposition Isamaa Party was supported by 28.7% of eligible voters, the senior coalition partner Reform Party had 19.2%, and the opposition Centre Party was plumped for by 13.1% of respondents.
Support for Isamaa and the Reform Party did not change much on the week. With practically equal support, the Centre Party is followed by EKRE (13%) and the SDE (12.7%). SDE’s rating has slipped by 5% during the past five weeks, lowering it from 2nd to 5th place on the ratings table. The parliamentary party with the lowest level of support is Estonia 200 (just 4.3% of respondents).
Estonia’s government coalition currently has three parties – Reform, Estonia 2000 and SDE, and these are supported by 36.2% of voters. Opposition parties are backed by 54.8%.
Associate Professor Martin Mölder at the Johan Skytte Institute for Political Studies at the University of Tartu says that the party rating landscape largely confirms trends and situations which have been seen in previous weeks.
“Isamaa is still at the top of the table with a rating a bit more than 1% below 30%,” says Mölder. “The fact that this party has achieved and maintained much support over the past year means that the profile of its supporters has also changed. A fairly clearer distinction, for instance, relates to the number of children whom voters have. Around 20% of voters without children support Isamaa, while more than 35% do among voters with many children. This is a separation that has been very stable.”
Support for the Reform Party remains at just under 20%, and Mölder says that no clear movement in one direction or the other is seen at this time.
“The four-week average support for the next three political parties – the Centre Party, EKRE and the Social Democrats, is within a few fractions of a percentage point different from each other this week,” the expert continues. “The Centre Party has seen a slight increase in support in recent weeks, backing for EKRE has been rather stable and with minor fluctuations, but support for the Social Democrats is continuing to decline rapidly. In previous weeks SDE’s rating fell only among Estonian voters, but this week the same is true among ethnic Russian voters. In August the Social Democrats had almost 18% support, but now that has fallen to 12.7%.”
If the next Riigikogu (Parliament) election were to be held today, Isamaa would receive 35 seats out of 101, the Reform Party would have 23, the Centre Party 15, and EKRE and the Social Democrats 14 seats apiece.
“Two-and-a-half years remain until the next election, but the moment when these numbers will inevitably start to influence the behaviour of political parties and politicians is not far off,” predicts Mörder. “The contrast with the current distribution of seats is significant, and many current Riigikogu members – everyone in Estonia 200 and many people in the Reform Party – face the threat of losing their jobs. The Social Democrats, the Centre Party and particularly Isamaa, for their part, could bring many new faces into the new parliament.”
Source: BNS
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